Dead Cat on the Table

Dead Cat on the Table Strategy

I’m on my last full day without a telephone signal in a cottage in N Yorks on an Easter break with family, so these updates have been a view from some quick snapshots of the election from a real outsiders perspective. But following on twitter has certainly kept me abreast of what has been happening in the Westminster bubble on its election tour!

After the relative success for Labour leading on the Non Dom story and the rather mixed rebuttal lines coming from the Tories they obviously realised (as I posted yesterday) that voters were hearing Labour taxes millionaires – Tories stick up for millionaires. The polling yesterday seemed to confirm this with support for the Non Dom policy at between 59-70%.

So it does seem as though the Tories used the Dead Cat on the Table Strategy. This is all explained much better here –
Dead Cat on the Table Strategy

The row about the Fallon comments rumbled on all day yesterday and sought to hit three Tory targets. First move on the agenda. Secondly show Miliband as weak in face of the SNP threat again. Thirdly shine a light on the Miliband character which Tory strategists believe is a major weakness. However. These all got mixed up as again the electorate heard – Miliband is weak and ruthlessly stabbed his brother in the back. So is he weak or ruthless?
Does anybody else fall for this nonsense about stabbing his brother ‘in the back’ Seems to me that Miliband ran in an open election for the Leadership. Not quite sure it was in the back!?

The polls came in thick and fast last night with the Guardian running a front page on the tide heading to Labour with leads of 2-6% points. As I have said repeatedly we shouldn’t take snap polls but stick to trends. The trend has so far been for a neck and neck with each party within the margin of error to be within a point or two of each other. If the lead is sustained beyond the weekend I would start to take it seriously. However, the positive to take out of this is the fact the Tories Crosby ‘Crossover point’ has never materialised. And just as importantly, however much you know it’s a snapshot and you shouldn’t take every poll seriously it does give candidates a spring in their step!

Talking of cats, it seems the PMs visit to Loughborough yesterday was almost upstaged by two cats fighting outside Taylor’s Bell Foundry.
There is lots to say about high profile visits to Key Seats. Whilst I enjoyed them they were always a pain to organise and took out so much effort. It was fine if they were big enough to get coverage in the local media – so the PM or key Cabinet ministers were always useful. We had Geoff Hoon once – delivering videos!

Finally a good piece on ConHome Con Home on the Marginals

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