Like most commentators I was spectacularly wrong about the outcome of the election last week, so it would seem very foolish to start to speculate about the outcome of the 2020 election already. So clearly I won’t even try. But I did enjoy the experience of trying to make sense of the election campaign for ‘friends’ & ‘followers’. So much so that I intend to log the journey to 2020 here on this political blog. I may not be able to keep up a daily blog but certainly I hope to capture each week what has been happening and why!
Of course this will be a Labour biased commentary but I will be looking at the big picture and commenting on the tactics and positioning taking place. The announcements from the Tory government have already been very political and planning ahead (as far as you can) to position themselves for the dividing lines in 2020. One of the reasons for Labour losing in 2010 was the Tories pinning a global recession onto the last Labour government. ‘Labour’s economic mess’ was allowed to stick. How many people realise economic growth was stronger in 2010 than it was in 2015?
I am guessing many of the early posts will be about why Labour lost and the Labour leadership election, which will be concluded by September. As I don’t believe all the candidates have declared yet (and Chuka has thrown in the towel already) I have not declared my support. In 2010 my choice for David Miliband was an obvious choice for me – even though all the candidates were friends. The fact that I have no immediate enthusiasm for any of the candidates is worrying. But more of this and an analysis of each candidate as we journey to September. I may find myself enthused as the feeling of fighting back returns!
In the meantime we can sit back and watch the comedy being given to us by Nigel Farage and UKIP. What an amazing soap opera. He managed to not be the Great Leader for about 48 hours! There are clear splits in the personnel but I am hoping this runs much deeper. As Lynton Crosby has predicted in The Telegraph today this might have been the political high point for UKIP. In a post Euro Referendum world what is the point?
And that of course will be the massive distraction of this government. The next 2 years could be dominated by a Referendum campaign on our membership of the EU. I will be campaigning for us to stay IN Europe. I know that this will be hard sell. It is always easier to be against things!
So hopefully this blog will be of some use to me if nothing else in plotting the journey back to power for a progressive government.