Live Blog Updates on Labour Leadership

12.37 – I have been gripped by my twitter timeline, the news, facebook. The fact is that much of the commentariat now believe Labour is now unelectable as does my non-labour member friends on social media. I have thousands of friends/ ex constituents. people who voted and supported me in a marginal seat but wouldn’t normally have ever voted Labour until 97. I care what they say and think and I don’t have response for them at this moment. I need to go away, play some sport and come back with a clear head before blogging here again and working out what to do next…

11.58 – I have  always liked Jeremy personally. But the people around him are not quite so pleasant. I will have to reflect on how to respond to this historic day. I am not and never was a Blairite/ New Labour but  I do fear that we have just lost the next election already. I know I should be excited because II support some of the causes promoted by Corbyn but his 1980s politics is not attractive to the electorate.

11.47 – JC doesn’t realise he has a microphone and is shouting his way through this speech. It is now when the full sense of what is happening takes hold. Corbyn  has a massive task ahead. I am not sure he will survive to 2020 but we will have to see. Quite righty he is praising the role of the other candidates. Looks like Corbyn got 84% of the ‘new registered’ supporters. Let’s see ho many now get involved and pay full membership..

11.43 – chaos as Corbyn figures read out 251,000 – 59% of the votes.   I feel numb,, certainly not excited. I feel fearful for the future of the  party. However, this is an amazing win for him. I can”t argue with that. I will look at the figures in each part of the electorate. But we know he has no support in the PLP

11.40 we finally get to the Leadership. All my twitter feed shows JC with 60% on first round with 422,000 voters.

11.38 Tom making a long call for Unity.. he is going to have a tough job holding together the Labour Party between now and 2020. I need to hear from him and how we win with Jeremy as leader.

11.33 – Tom Watson gets it. I first got to know Tom when he was minding Brian Moore on a campaign visit to Loughborough to support me in 1997.  I am pleased for him. I helped him on his first rebellion!

11.26 So Tom Watson gets 39% so we go to 2nd round. I love this tension but can’t we just annouce the winner and then  publish the figires for each round and how they got to 50%

11.25 – wow over 408,000 votes cast.

11.24 we finally get the Deputy Leadership results. I’m calling it for Tom Watson.

11.23 Sadiq gets a quick go.

11.11 Chance for @iainMcNicol making a few pointed remarks about expecting to see our new ‘£3 supporters’ out on the doorstep instead of click & pay for a vote… let’s see.

11.05 BBC Norman Smith speculating about the shadow cabinet – his options are really limited and his lack of leadership will sadly be exposed very quickly

11.00 Live TV coverage of the ‘conference’.  Lots of familiar faces in the crowd
10.54 – Kevin Maguire would know the ‘secret signals’ so there you have the result!

10.51 – Political pundit Brain Moore

10.48 – Strange knowing the candidates already know. It has been a hard graft for all the candidates in a marathon campaign. One lesson we must learn is not to create this tortuous process again….

10.39

Of course if the 76% turnout is correct that is a massive bonus for the Labour movement.. now with over 600,000 members and supporters which dwarfs the Tories at about 100,000. But of course the Tories rich friends and businesses and hedge fund managers pay into the Tory coffers so their moribund Associations don’t matter to them.

10.36

10.33 The candidates will be told the results soon and well before they are announced to the Conference. Whilst they are all sworn to secrecy they and their campaign teams will have secret signals to let their supporters know how to react. At the last election one team had a glasses on or carrying signal to note that their candidate had won or lost!


10.15 – speculation about who will and won’t serve in a Corbyn Shadow Cabinet. It’s a genuinely difficult one for most colleagues. Walk away and be accused by Corbynites for being a traitor and ignoring the democratic will of the party (and leave shadow cabinet to the Corbynites) or sit around a table and squirm in every interview about the policies that emerge and whether you think he can win the next election and become PM. For those of us who think we should have acted sooner on Ed Miliband when it was obvious he had no traction with voters this would be a nightmare situation. Personally I would do what Corbyn himself has done – fight from the backbenches for what you believe is right.

10.10 – It’s like Cup Final Day as the live coverage includes the candidates leaving their homes and arriving at the special conference.

The journalists and pundits are all calling for ‘Corbyn by a mile’ whilst some friends are still hoping that the ‘shock’ is anybody but Corbyn, I have looked through their various scenarios but ‘clutching at straws’ springs to mind.


9.00 Quite rightly most of my regulars ( yes there is such a thing!) will not be glued to live coverage of the Labour Leadership today on BBC2. Whilst I have managed to move on from full time politics you can’t eradicate the total absorption I feel on big days like today. This is not just an announcement about a post that nobody cares about (the annual battle for the conference arrangements committee for example). But today for me will decide the next historic fate of the entire Labour Party and who governs Britain for the next generation. There will be plenty of time for reflection when we know the result. But this morning is a chance to build up to the 11.30 announcement.

I have posted intermittently over the campaign so you will know that I eventually backed Andy Burnham, whilst feeling very torn with a vote for Yvette. In fact I thought Yvette finished the campaign much stronger and I am glad our household did vote for her! I put her as me second preference with enthusiasm.

I have also been pretty open at my despair at the electoral prospect of Corbyn winning today. I feel after 20 years of frontline politics in a marginal key middle england seat I know what it takes to win an election. Despite many of my own values probably being closer to Corbyn than all those Corbynites calling anybody who doesn’t think he is the messiah as ‘Tories or Blairites’ I realised the electorate are more centre left/ centre right and we need to win their votes not hector them about being wrong and shouting our views at them.

So it means I am not really looking forward to the result – unless of course we are now going to have the biggest upset in political polling and betting. With just about 2 hours to go I will post some more random thoughts as I read articles and tweets.

9.20

Labour Leadership Ballot Papers Out – it is now VERY real

The ballot papers for the Labour leadership election have started to go out and I am looking forward to receieving mine and posting my first preference for Andy Burnham, and my second for Yvette Cooper. As we saw in 2010 the distribution of secnd and third preferences can become really important.


So far I remained fairly quiet on my political blog – probably like a lot of members I was getting slightly fed up with being bombarded by texts and emails from the candidates (Leader AND Deputy Leader of course). But then ‘Corbynmania’ started to become a little less of a joke and serious polling started to emerge that he is odds on favourite to win. I still held back thinking the collective voice of the party would or will win through. I worked on the assumption that party activists have always been to the left of the majority of party members and certainly to the left of the majority of Labour party voters and way off the scale when compared to the general electorate. But day after day the bandwagon kept rolling for Jeremy and his campaign. My twitter and facebook is full of normally sensible friends with their ‘I’m backing Corbyn’ photos.

That’s why last week I had to come off the fence and support Andy Burnham as my first choice and Yvette as my second. The timing was helpful as Yvette delivered a really well received speech, moving out of the comfort zone of candidates trying to say all the right things to appease the Labour party electorate. It is right that she started to take on some of the myths of the magic surrounding the Corbyn campaign. It is frustrating that every time somebody raises serious questions about Corbyn and his policies their team run for the cover of ‘avoiding personality politics’.

This is the theme for today. I am afraid we are in an era of personality politics- even if we reject this kind of politics. It is like much of the Corbyn campaign – harking back to an era before 24 hour TV, News, and social media coverage. It seems that whilst UKIP want to take the country back to some mythical 1950s, The Tories ARE taking us back to some 1930s level of state provision, and now we have Corbyn & the left fighting battles of the 70s and 80s.  They also attack anybody (I assume I will now join their list) who does not agree with their vision of a left wing agenda as somehow a ‘Tory’. This idea that there is some test of ideological purity is something I find as deeply depressing as those in the Christian world denouncing others as non-believers because of some obscure theological doctrine.  I am reminded of the Life of Brian Scene time after time – ‘Splitters’.

Just because I am willing to adjust and create pragmatic policies to fit the world as it is now and will be in the future it does not mean an abandonment to my core principles of creating a more just and equal world. I hold a really positive and radical view of what the world could and should be like. It is a world in the words of Shane Claiborne – “where Capitalism is impossible and Communism is unnecessary.”

The main difference is that I know the majority of the British electorate don’t share my worldview just yet. Yes I could spend my time ‘educating’ them or waiting for our Right Wing Press to collapse. I could even wait for the end of international capitalism. But whilst I am waiting people suffer. I made a conscious decision as an 18 year old to Join the Labour Party because I wanted to change the world. I joined because of issues of international development and global poverty & inequality. I could have joined a campaign organisation (I did this too – from the Nicaragua solidarity Campaign to CND), i could have gone and worked for an aid agency to offer practical skills and effort. But I chose to join a political party so that we could get our hands on the levers of power to make the positive changes I wanted to see. Yes it was always slower than I liked and full of compromises, but when we cancelled much of the debt of the poorest 49 countries as a consequence of the Jubilee 2000 campaign I could see how important it is to be IN government, making the right choices even if it means compromise and adjustments.

So I can see the appeal of those who join Labour as a protest movement against capitalism and this bunch of Tory cronies running the country. But as we battle with each other over our ideological purities the Tories are busy ruining our country and sitting on 39% in the polls. So if you joined Labour as a ‘supporter’ just to get Corbyn elected as leader I fear you will have destroyed the very thing you want to see – the end of  Tory government. With Jeremy we will all be able to tut very loudly about the state of the world and just how awful these Tories are – but we won’t stand a chance of being able to do a thing about it!

You see we are electing a “Leader” of the opposition party with a view to them becoming Prime Minister. The electorate couldn’t even cope with the concept of the decent guy Ed Miliband becoming PM. What do Corbyn supporters honestly think the general electorate will make of Jeremy? And as we are electing a ‘Leader’ I would love to see far more scrutiny of the leadership qualities of the candidates. Who can command the PLP and Party? I am seriously not convinced Corbyn could ever seriously ask for party discipline in view of his years of non-compliance in my time in parliament.

I admire my friends enthusiasm for Corbyn and I know – a little like Farage & Boris Johnson – people like to see a little more fun in their politics. But the reality is that winning government is about forming a coalition and alliance of supporters from your core supporters to those who may vote for the other major parties. Corbyn does appeal to the core hard left voters, but the maths are against him winning & forming a government. All the research from the 2015 election I have seen points to our need to win back in the centre – not tack further to the left to bring back a few Greens and minor socialist party voters. I know many Corbynites also add in non -voters, but again the evidence suggests these are more likely to be right wing voters than the left sitting at home. This is why UKIP did well. They took voters from Lab & Tories and gained on-voters. I can assure Corbynites these voters are not looking for us to be more left wing!

I make this plea to fellow party memberss not because I don’t share some of the hopes and aspirations that Jeremy talks about and I certainly have really tried to avoid any hint of personal attacks in anything I write or say. I personally like Jeremy and enjoyed working with him a few times on some issues in Parliament

There is still a few weeks to go. And I hope to wake up one of these days to see the Corbyn bandwagon put into a proper perspective. It’s nice to wish, but realistically 10-20 years of opposition is not a good place to be. And I don’t want to be writing here in 2020 “that I told you so”

I’m One of those Annoying Floating Voters

 Over the years campiagning on the doorstep I was always struck how many people were genuinely floating voters and ‘undecideds’. As we saw in the 2015 General Election people were making their decisions right up to the end of the campaign – even in the polling booth on the day. I have always struggled with the idea that people didn’t know where they stood by the start of an election campiagn – never mind half way through or on election day.  I wondered how people could have so few values or knowledge to instantly know where their loyalties were going to fall. 

Of course my problem was always that people like me are the minority. Those who are actively interested in politics is very small and those who join parties and become tribal and always knowing where their values take them is even smaller. It is one of the challenges for modern politics – the breakdown of party loyalty. Even by election day in 2015, not having quite the same personal vested interest in the outcome I could see how the transactional nature of politics did have people comparing personal shopping lists of their personal circumstances versus the values of any particular party. This is how people think and we need to acknowledge that. 

  
To my horror at the start of the Labour Leadership election campiagn I found myself in the Don’t know/ undecided box. As I have written over the last few weeks how I know the candidates and whilst individually liking them all, and knowing ideologically where I am closest my test for my vote was always going to be who was best placed to build the coalition we created in 97 to win seats like Loughborough.

Despite some friendly calls and texts from the candidates and their campaign teams – who are all very enthusiastic of course about why their candidate is best by a mile – I am afraid I haven’t seen any killer punch/ knock out blow or stand out moment yet that has convinced me which way to vote. I know I only have one of the 230,000 labour member party votes so I am not exactly crucial to any specific campaign.

The truth is that I am still a floating voter and even I am fed up with my indecision. I will vote for all of the candidates of course. Tha’s the beauty of the electoral system. It is just in which order!?

I am afraid I am not the only one. In discsussions with MPs and other leading campiagners – even those who have ‘declared’ I sense the unease about the quality and timing of this leadership campaign. I hope I am wrong and before ‘polling day’ it all becomes crystal clear who the ideal candidate will be.

However, I am really looking forward for this campaign to become a little more exciting. The safety first poltiics isn’t working. Sending ‘signals’ to every pressure group in the party – who is best on TUs or LGBT rights isn’t working. I am assuming they all have good records on LGBT rights for example. I have talked about this before on election literature. Whenever a candidate makes a claim ‘for safer streets’  or “for cleaner streets’ I always want to ask them which candidate is therefore running on maker our streets unsafe or dirtier. I want to se in a Leadership campiagn, er well some Leadership. 

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